General Considerations

Key findings of the Pennsylvania Energy Impacts Assessment for Marcellus Shale ("PEIAMS"),
October 2010, concerning natural gas, included:

"About 60,000 new Marcellus wells are projected by 2030 in Pennsylvania with a range (6,000 to 15,000 well pads, depending on the number of wells per pad; wells are likely to be developed in at least 30 counties, with the greatest number concentrated in 15 southwestern, north central, and northeastern counties. Given uncertainties about how energy prices could change, it was assumed that prices and capital investment (and policy and social conditions) will be sufficient to promote steady development growth during the next two decades."

In summary, PEIAMS infers that approximately 3,000 wells will be drilled each year on average for the next eighteen years, and that between six to ten wells will be drilled from each pad. PEAIMS was fully aware of the uncertainty inherent in these numbers and didn't consider them as predictions, but as "best guesses" on which to develop their analysis of the possible environmental impact of drilling activities. Unfortunately, the problem of predicting an uncertain future remains. 

With these uncertainties in mind it is assumed that the "best" basis for predicting future data is to use data from the immediate past, that is, data for 2011 where annual data is needed and data for May 1, 2012, where day to day data is needed (nearly all such data was obtained from www.marcellusgas.org, which in turn obtained its data primarily from oil and gas companies mandatory filings).